Why match rates are falling

For years, third-party cookies did the quiet work of tying audiences together across the web. As they disappear and mobile identifiers get more restricted, that connective tissue thins out. The result is familiar to any team running an identity graph: match rates against first-party data stop climbing and start to plateau, and international coverage stays patchy.

The instinct is to collect more data. But the problem is not volume, it is connection. The identifiers already exist. What is missing is the links between them.

What a match rate actually measures

A match rate is the proportion of records in one dataset that can be connected to a usable identifier in another, for example, how many of your hashed emails can be tied to a reachable mobile ID or household. A higher match rate means more of your audience is addressable, so more of your budget reaches real people instead of falling into the gap.

Because it sits between your data and your activation, a small lift compounds: more addressable inventory, more of your first-party data put to work, and more accurate frequency and measurement downstream.

Why more data is the wrong fix

Piling on more raw data rarely moves the number. A larger but murky dataset adds noise, not matches, and often more risk to hold. What lifts a match rate is better connections between the identifiers you and your partners already have: email to mobile, and device to household.

How to improve match rates without cookies

A few moves do most of the work, none of which depend on third-party cookies.

Add email-to-mobile connections. Connecting hashed emails to mobile advertising IDs lets an email-based audience be recognized in mobile environments, which is where a large share of activation now happens.

Add device-to-household connections. Tying devices to a residential IP anchors them to a household, so you can extend reach to the other devices in the same home, including connected TV.

Fill coverage by market and hash type. Match rates vary widely by country and by the email hash used, and there are several common hash formats. Layering in connections precisely where your coverage is thinnest lifts the average more than broad, untargeted additions.

Refresh on a predictable cadence. Connections drift as people change devices and providers. Refreshing them regularly keeps a match rate from quietly eroding over time.

What to watch for

Not all match-rate gains are equal. Ask where the coverage actually sits, because a strong global average can hide weak individual markets. Ask how each connection is made, since connections supported by strong, observed evidence are more dependable than those inferred by modeling, and a good partner is transparent about which is which. And ask how often the connections are refreshed, because stale links inflate a headline number that will not hold.

Bringing it together

Improving match rates in a cookieless world is not about hoarding data. It is about connecting the durable identifiers people already carry, email, mobile and household, precisely where your coverage is weak, and keeping those connections current. Done well, more of your first-party data becomes addressable, and the lift shows up across reach, frequency and measurement.

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Frequently asked questions

What is a good match rate?

It depends on the markets, identifiers and data involved, so there is no single benchmark. What matters more than a headline number is how it breaks down by country and hash type, and how it is measured.

Can you improve match rates without third-party cookies?

Yes. Match rates can be lifted by connecting hashed emails, mobile IDs and household IP, none of which rely on third-party cookies.

Why do match rates plateau?

As cookies fade and mobile identifiers tighten, the links that used to tie audiences together thin out, so first-party data finds fewer matches. Adding fresh connections where coverage is weakest is what lifts the ceiling.

Does more data improve match rates?

Not usually. A larger but lower-quality dataset adds noise rather than matches. Better connections between existing identifiers move the number.

What is HEM to MAID?

The connection between a hashed email and a mobile advertising ID, which lets an email audience be recognized in mobile environments and is one of the most effective ways to lift match rates.